Vidya Mahambare

We estimate an augmented Phillips curve to examine the effects of supply shocks on inflation in India. Our results suggest that supply shocks only have a transitory effect on both headline and core measures of inflation. The evidence is robust to a variety of re-specifications and core inflation measures. The potential explanation for this is that monetary policy has not provided the basis for a sustained change in the inflation process by accommodating supply shocks i.e., expanding money supply in response to negative supply shocks. Thus, monetary authorities have implicitly focused on a core measure of inflation by discounting price movements that are expected to be reversed in the short-run. In short, what is crucial in inflation determination is not supply shocks per se but how policymakers respond to these shocks.

The purpose of this study is to understand the impact of conditional cash transfers (CCT) and health advice (HA) provided under India’s Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY) on child health outcomes, specifically neonatal and infant mortality (NMR and IMR) rates, in India’s low-performing states. By analysing data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), the authors aim to analyse the individual and combined impact of CCT and HA on improving child health, particularly for children of mothers with low education, from disadvantaged castes and with lesser wealth.

Farm debt waivers which are meant to be a one-time settlement of loans have become common in India. This paper finds, after controlling for variables related to farming distress, that the timing of waiver announcements by state governments between 2001-02 and 2018–19 is associated with the timing of elections. This points toward a pattern of policy manipulation that suggests election-year targeting of the largest special interest group in India, namely farming households. The debt waivers, either announced as policies by incumbent governments prior to upcoming elections or as election pledges by political parties which are fulfilled after winning elections, are unanticipated shocks to government revenue expenditure. We find that the waivers are associated with an increased revenue deficit, which is accommodated by a nearly 1/3rd cut in capital outlay to control the fiscal deficit, given the presence of a fiscal rule. Given its path dependence, lower capital expenditure also reduces the quality of government spending in subsequent years.

This study underscores the importance of contextually customizing the lexicon framework to improve the accuracy of sentiment scoring in textual data. We adapt the commonly used Loughran and McDonald lexicon to reclassify, remove, and incorporate words to capture their nuanced meanings within the public finance language accurately. The revised methodology shifts the sentiment score from negative to positive in 43% of budget speeches delivered by Indian finance ministers since 1980. Our analysis indicates a progressive increase in positive sentiment within budget speeches since 2016, except for the COVID-19 years, along with a shortening of speech length. The regression analysis suggests that budget speeches delivered by finance ministers during the single-party governments formed by the political party, the Indian National Congress, were the least positive, controlling for the macroeconomic environment. In contrast, those during the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) majority government were the most positive. The budget speeches during the coalition governments fall between these extremes, but the speeches by the BJP finance ministers within a coalition have a higher positive sentiment. Finance ministers’ speech sentiment is negatively associated with lagged inflation rates but not with economic growth and crisis periods.

Using a primary survey covering key commuting parameters from three Indian megacities—Bengaluru, Chennai and Mumbai—which differ in transport infrastructure, we analyse the endogenous decision-making process of urban high-income commuters of similar age and education levels. We find that young urban professionals first decide on commuting distance between workplace and home, and subsequently choose their mode of commuting. We find that men are 15% more likely to use private modes of transport (PRT) than public transport (PT). Despite having similar incomes, women are 15% less likely to use PRT compared to PT and 19% more likely to use intermediate public transport (IPT). PRT and IPT usage is associated with higher commute costs and lower travel speed compared to trains but similar speed levels compared to public buses. Commuters who use PRT and IPT report a better travel experience than those using PT. Commuters in Mumbai face a significantly lower quality of commute, due to their greater reliance on PT. Finally, lower quality of travel has a significant adverse association with productivity at work, especially for women.

This article contributes to the understanding of commuting mobility constraints on women in paid work in the context of urban India. With the help of a primary survey of 293 workers in the Chennai Metropolitan Region between January and June 2018, augmented with in-depth interviews of 20 women on their commuting parameters and mobility constraints, we document gender disparity in the use of modes of transport with women relying more on public transport (among low skilled workers) and cab services (among high skilled workers) compared to men's higher use of personal modes of transport. The transport mode in turn, adversely influences the time, cost and/or convenience of commuting for women. The evidence suggests that the mode of transport is not being endogenously determined, but a constraint that appears to emerge due to gender norms surrounding access to transport resources. The home location also acts as a constraint for working married women if a cultural norm requires them to move into a spouse's home location post marriage. Commuting safety is a key concern, especially for women in low-skilled occupations. We highlight the commuting challenges for women in paid work, which urban policymakers need to factor into their future city mobility plans.